11th March 2025 - A CHANGE WILL DO YOU GOOD

Good morning all, it's great to have you on board.

Finally Cheltenham is with us and in typical Horseplays fashion, we won't be 'tipping' Constitution Hill, Majborough or Galopin Des Champs etc at heavy odds-on and then claiming afterwards that we are some sort of equine racing geniuses.

If you are looking for someone to confirm to you that the sun is going to rise tomorrow, then you are in the wrong place!

Instead,  what we try and do is pitch ourselves in at the deep end in our bid to prove that knowledge and skill can give you a better chance of grabbing that needle from the haystack (or maybe I should say neighstack?) no matter how small the proverbial needle may be.

Each day of the Festival we will be looking at a big handicap in detail.

Every race is a puzzle to solve, some being trickier puzzles than others!

So, therefore, why not try and attempt the ultimate Rubik's Cube on Day 1 of the Festival - making sense of the Ultima Handicap Chase (2:40) - no less (or "so I am" if you are Jim McDonald.)

The race is a long distance Class 1 handicap over a stamina sapping 25 furlongs. In fact, it requires a special type of horse to win it, with a fairly unique skillset.

Primarily I'm going to use statistics to whittle down the field from 24 to a manageable shortlist, in the style of the late , great William G Stewart. Then hopefully we end up with the right selection at the end... that's my goal anyway... what could go possibly go wrong I hear you say!

AGE

There have been a couple of notable exceptions (remember Vintage Clouds anyone?) but I stick with my claim that in this race you need a horse that is experienced enough given the arduous task ahead, yet you don't want a grizzled , old  veteran who has seen far better days - the Ultima is neither for the fainthearted nor the sentimental.

So at an age from 7 to 9 they are therefore at the peak of their racing prowess.  Straw Fan Jack, Happygolucky, Frero Banbou and Farouk d'Alene can therefore be disposed of first.

THAT CHELTENHAM FEELING

It's absolutely crucial to have had a previous run at the track, you have to go back some years to find a Cheltenham virgin winner of this race.

And for that reason alone Myretown, who pulled out of his only other engagement here last year, is readily eliminated, even though I know that he's one of the sexier options - I'd rather go for strong and stable though, just like Theresa May's government.

STAMINA

An abundance of proven stamina is an absolute no brainer, so I am looking for horses that have had at least one win at 3 miles or over. Here we lose Richmond Lake, Grandeur d'Ame, Trelawne, Crebilly, Guard Your Dreams and Zanahiyr. So long, farewell, Auf Wiederseh'n, adieu - it's been emotional.

CLASS

I think the benchmark for this race falls nowadays at a pretty decent rating of 140, given that there has been only one horse to defy this in recent memory (The Conditional) and he was close up at 139. Therefore we lose The Short Go, Whistlestop Tour, Katate Dori -  and last but not least King Turgeon, who just misses the cut by the skin of his royal chinny chin chin.

WEIGHT

There has only been one recent Ultima winner that has carried over 11 stone 8 and won the race, it's obviously proving too much of a welter burden.

So I want to set this as my maximum weight. Broadway Boy, Stay Away Fay, Victtorino and Search for Glory are shouldering too much for my liking and they can go, walk out the door,  Stay Away Fay, cos you're not welcome anymore...etc.

THE SHORTLIST

We are left with a manageable shortlist of FIVE potential protagonists for this year's Ultima throne - Henry's Friend, Sequestered, Famous Bridge, Malina Girl and The Changing Man.

Sequestered has only had one career run over 3 miles, so I'm not at all convinced that he's ready for this yet.

Henry's Friend has had one run around Cheltenham and he looked like he absolutely hated it. I can't trust him on this.

I wouldn't put off anybody backing Famous Bridge, because he could be the wildcard of the race as he's a lightly run, unexposed, improving sort.

However, I am going on the form that has already been banked safely into the cash ISA and I believe that this race is a choice between Malina Girl (who likes it around Cheltenham) and The Changing Man. 

Regular readers will know that I'm a big fan of THE CHANGING MAN, currently priced generally at 15/2 as I write this, 6 places freely available. He recently ended his frustrating habit of finishing second with an impressive 24 length Grade 2 win at Ascot last month.

A 2lb raise is very fair and this is certainly not the time to change my mind and desert him. I think he has a strong case today and I know, whatever happens that he will give his all for us. Make sure you get the 6 places by the way, as it gives you a nice safety blanket.

Good luck today and whatever happens, we'll be back tomorrow with another Cheltenham handicap!

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HORSEPLAYS – 11/03/25 – Free Racing Tips 

CHELTENHAM - 2:40 - THE CHANGING MAN - 1.5 pts E/W - (MAIN PLAY)